Houthis Reach Hanish Islands: Is Bab al-Mandab Next?
After taking control of the coastal city of Mokha, the Houthis reached the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, according to two Yemeni government sources who spoke to Reuters, bringing fighting along Yemen’s western coast closer to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a key global trade and energy route.
Attacks on Hanish prompted government forces and their allies to move south toward Dhubab, which lies on Bab al-Mandab opposite Perim Island, known in Yemen as Mayyun, the sources said.
Reaching Hanish does not mean the Houthis control Bab al-Mandab, and the latest vessel-tracking data does not show shipping through the strait has stopped. But the advance comes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faces significant disruption and Saudi Arabia increasingly relies on its Red Sea coast to export oil without using the Gulf waterway.
What happened in the Hanish Islands?
Two Yemeni government sources told Reuters that the Houthis reached the Hanish Islands after the Houthis took control of Mokha, amid escalating fighting along Yemen’s western coast.
The Houthis launched attacks on Hanish, prompting government forces and their allies to move south toward Dhubab, the sources said.
The Hanish Islands lie in the southern Red Sea, north of Bab al-Mandab. Dhubab is directly on the Yemeni side of the strait, opposite Perim Island, which sits within the waterway.
Government sources told Reuters that control of Dhubab and Perim would be crucial for any force seeking to strengthen its influence over the strait.
Available information, however, does not indicate that the Houthis control Bab al-Mandab. Reaching Hanish also does not automatically mean they have full control of the islands or surrounding shipping lanes.
Iranian support behind the Houthi advance?
Sources in the Yemeni government, Iran and the region told Reuters that the rapid Houthi advance along the Red Sea coast came with guidance and advice from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Two Iranian sources said Tehran asked the Houthis last week to escalate attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding, weapons and senior officers. A regional diplomat with knowledge of the matter said several Revolutionary Guards commanders had traveled to Yemen to oversee attacks targeting Saudi Arabia.
Iran publicly denies directing the Houthis militarily and says they are not its proxies. Another Iranian official told Reuters that the decision to move on Mokha was made by the Houthis, not Iran, although the official said the development served Tehran’s interests by pressuring the United States and Saudi Arabia and contributing to higher oil prices.
Five military sources from Yemen’s internationally recognized government said the Revolutionary Guards directed the Houthis’ new Red Sea campaign. Reuters also quoted Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, as saying the offensive was not planned in just a matter of weeks, pointing to the Houthis’ evolving capabilities and acquisition of new weapons through Iran or smuggling networks.
Has the fighting moved closer to Bab al-Mandab?
Geographically, yes, but that does not mean the strait is under Houthi control.
Dhubab and Perim are now key locations to watch. Perim lies within Bab al-Mandab and divides it into two channels, while Dhubab sits on Yemen’s coast directly alongside the strait.
Reuters said in a subsequent report that the capture of Mokha had strengthened the Houthis’ grip on Bab al-Mandab and that the group appeared focused on consolidating its influence over the strait. That does not amount to full control of the waterway.
Vessel movements also do not indicate widespread disruption. Preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed 28 cargo vessels crossed Bab al-Mandab on Wednesday, compared with a 10-day daily average of 27.
What are the Houthis saying about shipping?
Mohammed Abdulsalam, a spokesperson for the Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, said navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab remained safe and that the group’s operations were limited to specific targets.
Abdulsalam said the operations would end when what he described as the “aggression” against Yemen ends.
The Houthi-run Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center also said Red Sea navigation remained safe for shipping companies, but excluded Saudi vessels, which it said remained subject to a previously announced ban.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter?
As fighting moves closer to Bab al-Mandab, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined significantly.
Preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed that only seven vessels crossed Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 12 the previous day and a 10-day daily average of 14.
Hormuz is not completely closed. Ships are still crossing, and some vessels that are not transmitting tracking signals may not appear in the data.
The contrast is significant: Hormuz traffic has declined sharply, while Bab al-Mandab traffic remains close to its recent average.
Saudi Arabia can bypass Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab lies on the route
Saudi Arabia can move oil from production areas in the east through pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing tankers to load without passing through Hormuz.
According to Vortexa data cited by Reuters, crude and condensate loadings from Yanbu rose to about 3.7 million barrels per day in September from around 3.2 million in August.
Kpler estimates loadings at about 2.9 million barrels per day in September, up from around 1.5 million in August.
But oil leaving Yanbu for Asian markets must sail south through the Red Sea and pass through Bab al-Mandab into the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
Yanbu gives Saudi Arabia a route around Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab is the southern gateway for that route toward Asia.
Could Bab al-Mandab become another Hormuz?
Current information does not indicate that this has happened.
Bab al-Mandab remains open, vessel traffic has not seen the sharp decline recorded in Hormuz, and there is no reliable information so far indicating that the Houthis control Dhubab, Perim or the strait itself.
But trade disruption does not require a complete military closure. Shipping and insurance companies also consider the risk of attacks, insurance costs and crew safety when deciding whether to use a route.
Previous Red Sea crises have shown that heightened risks can prompt some shipping companies to reroute vessels even when Bab al-Mandab remains open.
In such a scenario, some ships could divert around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, resulting in longer voyages and higher operating costs.
The simultaneous risks around Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are therefore particularly important. If the Red Sea is used to reduce exposure to disruption in Hormuz, greater risks at its southern gateway would put pressure on that alternative as well.
Oil prices rise as shipping risks grow
Oil prices are rising sharply amid concerns over supply security and transport routes.
Brent crude rose more than 6% on Thursday to $107.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $102.48, according to the latest figures reported by Reuters.
The increase cannot be attributed to Mokha and Hanish alone. Markets are responding to a broader range of military developments, attacks on vessels and disruption around Hormuz.
Yemeni government forces seek Saudi support
Two Yemeni officials told Reuters that the government requested additional air support and assistance from Saudi Arabia as the Houthi advance toward Mokha began.
The officials said Saudi Arabia provided logistical and intelligence support and weapons, while limited airstrikes focused more heavily on the northern Yemeni fronts of al-Jawf and Marib.
They said Riyadh sought to avoid a broader escalation with the Houthis over concerns that the group could intensify drone attacks on Saudi territory. Saudi officials did not respond to Reuters requests for comment on the military focus on the northern front rather than the Red Sea coast.
After Hanish, what comes next?
Dhubab and Perim are the key locations to watch. Any change in control there would carry greater significance for Bab al-Mandab because both lie directly along the strait.
Vessel traffic will also be an important indicator. Continued crossings near recent averages would suggest military risks have not yet translated into widespread trade disruption, while a significant and sustained decline could signal changing conditions.
Shipping and insurance decisions will be equally important. Rising war-risk premiums or major carriers rerouting vessels could produce an economic impact even without a physical closure of the strait.
Bab al-Mandab has not become another Hormuz — at least not yet
The Houthis’ arrival in Hanish after taking control of Mokha brings the fighting closer to Bab al-Mandab, but it does not mean the strait is under their control.
International shipping continues, and the latest data shows vessel traffic remains close to its recent average.
But disruption in Hormuz and the growing importance of Yanbu and the Red Sea as an alternative route for Saudi oil exports raise the stakes.
Bab al-Mandab has not become another Hormuz, at least not yet. But as fighting moves closer to the waterway while energy exports seek alternatives to Hormuz, developments along Yemen’s coast could have consequences for one of the world’s most important trade routes.
Sources
- Reuters: Iranian weapons and advice helped Yemen’s Houthis capture Mokha
- Reuters: Houthis reach Hanish Islands as they move closer to Bab al-Mandab
- Reuters: Oil prices rise as risks to supply routes intensify
