Turkey’s Top Challenge: Accelerating Population Aging Raises Alarms
Turkey is entering a sensitive demographic phase as the pace of population aging accelerates, presenting growing economic, social, and healthcare challenges. According to official data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the proportion of citizens aged 65 and over continues to rise steadily, raising concerns over potential scenarios similar to Japan’s demographic experience.
Significant Increase in Elderly Population
A report published by Sabah newspaper and translated by the “Turkey Now” website noted that the number of elderly individuals in Turkey increased by 20.7% over the past five years, reaching more than 9.1 million in 2024, up from 7.5 million in 2019. Their share of the total population also rose from 9.1% to 10.6%. Official projections estimate this figure will reach 13.5% by 2030 and 33.6% by 2100.
Warnings of Potential Negative Impacts
Experts warn that if this trend continues without effective policy responses, Turkey could face outcomes similar to Japan, where individuals over the age of 80 comprise more than 10% of the population. In response, some Japanese companies have shifted production from infant diapers to adult diapers. Japan has also seen a rise in minor crimes committed by the elderly, often linked to social isolation and economic pressures.
Professor Dr. İsmail Tuan, Head of Gerontology at Muş Alparslan University, stated that by 2050, one in three people in Turkey will be over the age of 65. He highlighted the need for structural shifts in economic and social policies, including:
Gradual increase in the retirement age
Expansion of healthcare and social support systems
Greater inclusion of elderly individuals in the labor market
Development of home-based support systems, as traditional family structures decline
Economic Implications
The report emphasizes that a declining working-age population could result in slower economic growth and increased pressure on pension and social security systems. Experts advocate for policies aimed at improving youth employment and productivity, as well as enhancing job opportunities for older adults.
Turkey’s Global Standing
According to United Nations data for 2024, the global population reached approximately 8.16 billion, with over 833 million individuals aged 65 and older—around 10.2% of the global population. Turkey ranked 75th out of 194 countries in terms of aging rate, while Monaco, Japan, and Italy topped the list.
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