Ethiopia’s election between security challenges and the Nile and Red Sea files
Ethiopia election 2026: Tigray and Amhara conflicts disrupt voting, opposition questions process integrity
Ethiopia is heading toward parliamentary and regional elections considered among the most significant political milestones in its modern history, as files of internal security, economic development, and foreign policy intersect in the electoral scene.
While the government bets on its economic record and development projects, the country faces challenges related to armed conflicts in some regions, alongside prominent regional files that dominate political debate, foremost among them the issue of the Nile River and access to the Red Sea.
Approximately 50 million registered voters are participating in the elections scheduled for early June, as regional and international parties follow the electoral process as an influential milestone in the future of the second most populous country in Africa.
Security challenges cast shadow over electoral process
The elections come amid varying security conditions in several Ethiopian regions, particularly Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray—areas that have witnessed armed clashes and recurring political tensions in recent years.
In the Amhara region, at least eight electoral districts out of a total of 138 were excluded from the voting process due to security circumstances, while the electoral council announced the complete cancellation of elections in the Tigray region for the second time in recent years, meaning the region’s continued absence from representation in the federal parliament.
This follows years of war in the country’s north between 2020 and 2022, which resulted in significant human losses and widespread humanitarian crises, before the Pretoria peace agreement was reached in November 2022.
However, tensions have recently resurfaced after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front announced the reactivation of its previous legislative council and the election of Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president—a step the federal government considered an attempt to undermine existing arrangements. In response, the Front accuses the government of provoking political tensions, withholding resources, and extending the interim administration’s term without political consensus.
With the emergence of two competing administrations within the region and sporadic security incidents, local and international warnings have escalated over the potential return of tension to the area, as the European Union and the United Kingdom called for restraint and avoidance of any new escalation.
Rights debate and opposition questioning of competition integrity
Alongside security challenges, the government faces criticism from some opposition parties and rights organizations regarding the political work environment and public freedoms.
Opponents accuse the government of imposing restrictions on party activities and detaining some political figures and journalists, while authorities affirm that the measures taken fall within national security requirements and law enforcement.
In this context, opposition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party leader Mestreselasi Tamerat described the electoral process as “far from being real and democratic,” considering that the political system gives preference to the ruling party.
For his part, Ezema opposition party spokesman Eyouel Solomon said his party seeks to “end ethnicity-based politics,” pointing out that some citizens, according to him, have faced discrimination or targeting due to their ethnic identities.
In contrast, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party is expected to maintain its dominant position in parliament, having achieved a wide majority in the 2021 elections, currently holding more than 500 seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives.
Economy and development at forefront of ruling party’s discourse
Meanwhile, the ruling party focuses its electoral campaign on economic and developmental files, based on growth indicators and economic reforms the country has witnessed in recent years.
Government estimates suggest the possibility of achieving economic growth exceeding 10% during 2026, driven by economic liberalization measures, attracting investments, and boosting exports.
Government supporters believe these policies have contributed to improving some economic indicators and food security, while the opposition maintains that security and political challenges continue to cast their shadow over the internal scene and limit the reflection of these indicators across different regions.
Nile returns to forefront of electoral debate
Alongside internal files, the Nile River issue has emerged as one of the most prominent axes of debate among competing parties during the electoral campaign.
Despite differing political discourse among competing forces, most parties expressed agreement on the importance of benefiting from transboundary water resources while maintaining dialogue with downstream countries.
Prosperity Party spokesman Begela Horisa said “transboundary rivers can be used to develop Ethiopians without harming downstream countries,” affirming that cooperation and dialogue are the appropriate mechanisms for managing the file.
For his part, Ezema party leader Ayub Mesfent considered that downstream countries “should receive their fair share of water,” but stressed the need to deal with the issue according to current development data rather than historical agreements.
Freedom and Equality Party leader Abdulqader Adam called for dealing with the Nile as “an opportunity for shared development and regional cooperation,” while Coalition for Ethiopian Unity spokesman Marshav Sinshaw stated that managing the file should be based on the “win-win” principle serving the interests of all basin countries.
Red Sea: Agreement on goal, disagreement on approach
The file of access to the Red Sea also occupied a prominent space in the electoral discourse, amid continued debate within Ethiopia regarding the repercussions of the country’s lack of a direct sea outlet.
Major parties agreed that the current situation represents an economic and strategic challenge, but they differed in approaches to addressing the issue.
While Abdulqader Adam called for seeking consensual solutions through diplomatic means and regional cooperation, Ayub Mesfent considered that access to the Red Sea is an achievable goal through negotiation and formulas of mutual benefit with neighboring countries.
For his part, the Prosperity Party spokesman affirmed that the government views the issue within the framework of economic integration and building regional partnerships, while the Coalition for Ethiopian Unity adopted a more critical stance toward Eritrean policies, considering that the Red Sea file is tied to long-term strategic interests for Ethiopia.
Elections under domestic and international watch
As the voting date approaches, attention turns to the electoral process’s ability to manage the intertwined challenges facing the country, whether at the security, political, or economic levels.
In this context, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta leads an African Union observer mission comprising dozens of monitors, emphasizing the importance of the elections for Ethiopia and the African continent and calling for a peaceful electoral process.
While election results appear likely to favor the ruling party according to observers’ estimates, the significance of this milestone extends beyond forming the next parliament to how Ethiopia will handle files of internal security, national reconciliation, economic development, and its regional relations in the coming years.
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Ahead of the 1 June 2026 General Elections in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, President (Rtd) Uhuru Kenyatta and Head of the African Union Election Observation Mission, met with a United Nations delegation in Addis Ababa led by Dr. Ozonnia Ojielo, Assistant… pic.twitter.com/XQh0s1HOhN
— Office of the 4th President of Kenya. (@4thPresidentKE) May 31, 2026
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