Gold Jumps to $4,488 as Fed Shift Puts $4,500 Within Reach
Gold prices on Thursday, September 3, 2026, staged a sharp reversal, with the metal jumping more than 2% and approaching $4,500 an ounce after traders scaled back bets on a U.S. interest-rate hike in September. At the same time, oil remained near elevated levels as risks tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving markets with an unusual equation: easing expectations for tighter monetary policy are supporting gold, while high energy prices are keeping inflation risks alive.
Gold jumped more than 2% on Thursday, with spot prices reaching $4,488.54 an ounce in the latest published update during the session, approaching the psychologically important $4,500 level after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller prompted investors to reduce expectations for an interest-rate increase this month.
Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,488.54 an ounce by 2:04 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time, while U.S. gold futures settled 2.8% higher at $4,539.90 an ounce.
The move marked a rapid reversal from Wednesday, when gold fell to its lowest level since August 7 before changing direction. The shift can be viewed in the broader context examined by Profile News in its coverage of the decline in gold prices and changing interest-rate expectations.
Energy prices, meanwhile, remained elevated as tensions in the Middle East persisted. The latest published data on Thursday showed Brent crude trading near $96 a barrel and U.S. crude above $91, after both benchmarks earlier reached their highest levels in six weeks.
Gold jumped more than 2% after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting if upcoming data confirmed that inflation pressures were continuing to ease. The probability of a September rate increase fell to about 54% from around 62% before his comments, while declines in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields supported the precious metal.
Gold Prices Today: What Happened in the Market?
- Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,488.54 an ounce in the latest published update.
- U.S. gold futures settled 2.8% higher at $4,539.90.
- The probability of a U.S. interest-rate increase in September fell to about 54% from around 62% before Waller’s comments.
- Silver rose 2.8% to $67.13 an ounce.
- Platinum gained 4.2% to $1,830.28.
- Palladium jumped 5.9% to $1,426.75.
- Oil remained elevated as supply risks linked to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz persisted.
Note: Prices move continuously during trading. The figures cited here represent the latest levels documented by the sources used at the time of publication and are not necessarily final closing prices for all assets.
Gold Prices Surge as Waller Changes the Rate Calculus
The most significant driver behind the rise in gold today came from Washington, specifically from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
Waller said that if upcoming data confirmed that inflation pressures were easing, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on September 15-16.
Markets had recently increased bets on another rate hike, particularly as inflation risks persisted and energy prices remained elevated. Waller’s comments, however, reopened the possibility of rates being left unchanged.
Following his remarks, the market-implied probability of a September rate increase fell to about 54%, from around 62% beforehand.
That is critical for gold: as interest-rate and yield expectations decline, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as the precious metal also falls.
$4,500 Becomes Gold’s Next Test
With spot gold reaching $4,488.54, the $4,500-an-ounce level was only about $11.46 above the latest published benchmark price.
But approaching that level does not guarantee a breakout. The next move will depend heavily on U.S. economic data and the direction of the dollar and Treasury yields.
In a short period, markets have moved from concern over a potential rate increase to reassessing how necessary such an increase may be. The $4,500 level is therefore more than a psychological threshold; it comes as U.S. monetary-policy expectations are being repriced.
Lower rate-hike expectations → lower yields and a weaker dollar → lower opportunity cost of holding gold → support for gold prices.
But:
Higher oil prices → greater inflation risks → potentially tighter Fed policy → possible pressure on gold.
Jobs Data Add Another Reason for Gold’s Rise
Waller’s comments were not the only factor. Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 206,000 in the latest week, compared with a revised 204,000 the previous week.
Although claims remain at historically low levels, markets are watching for any signs of a slowdown in the labor market for clues about the next direction of interest rates.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be the next major test. Data pointing to a cooling labor market could ease pressure for a rate increase, while stronger-than-expected figures could revive some of those expectations.
But Oil Presents the Fed With a Different Problem
While lower yields and a weaker dollar are supporting gold, oil is sending the opposite signal from an inflation perspective.
According to the latest Reuters update published during the session, Brent crude stood at around $95.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was around $91.64. Prices had earlier climbed to six-week highs on Thursday, with Brent reaching $97.29 and WTI $93.04.
The latest market snapshot accompanying this report showed Brent trading near $95.90 and U.S. crude near $91.84 at a later point in the session.
Those levels followed a series of gains linked to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and supply risks. The background to the rally is examined in Profile News’ analysis of oil prices following U.S. strikes on Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz Returns to the Gold-Oil Equation
The rise in oil cannot be separated from developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the energy supply crisis.
Preliminary shipping data showed that six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 the previous day and below the 10-day average of about 13 vessels.
That makes the relationship between oil and gold more complicated. Geopolitical escalation can support gold as a defensive asset, but it can also push oil prices higher and increase inflation risks, potentially lifting interest-rate expectations and yields and putting pressure on the metal.
That is why developments in U.S.-Iran tensions and the regional conflict in the Middle East remain directly relevant to the outlook for gold and energy markets.
Turkey Returns 16 Tons of Gold to Its Reserves
Alongside the price surge, another development emerged in the gold market involving central-bank reserves.
Data from Turkey’s central bank showed that its international gold reserves increased by 16 metric tons last week to 791.4 tons, following the maturity of a dollar-gold swap agreement.
According to bankers familiar with the transaction, the swap had an estimated value of about $1.8 billion and was the latest in a series of such transactions carried out since the start of the war in Iran. Previous transactions had been rolled over at maturity, while the central bank took the gold back this time. Turkey’s central bank declined to comment on the transaction.
It is important, however, not to automatically interpret the 16-ton increase as a new purchase of gold in the market. Published data indicate that the gold returned to reserves after the swap agreement matured, which is different from a new purchase of the same amount.
Is Central-Bank Buying Supporting Gold?
The development in Turkey comes as central banks remain an important component of global gold demand.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks recorded net purchases of 23 tons in July, while reported purchases since the beginning of 2026 reached about 130 tons.
However, the current daily move in gold is more directly tied to U.S. interest-rate expectations, the dollar, yields and economic data than to the change in Turkey’s reserves alone.
Why Is Gold Rising Even as Oil Remains High?
Gold and oil are not currently rising for the same reason. Oil is being supported by supply risks and geopolitical tensions, while gold received a direct boost on Thursday from lower expectations for a rate increase and declines in the dollar and yields.
The two assets can therefore rise at the same time, even if higher oil prices could later pose a countervailing risk to gold through inflation.
The move is consistent with the broader picture examined by Profile News in its analysis of global markets, gold and oil, where the relationship between energy, inflation, yields and monetary policy has become one of the key factors in asset pricing.
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Prices Today
| Asset | Reference Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold | $4,488.54 | +2.3% |
| U.S. gold futures | $4,539.90 | +2.8% |
| Silver | $67.13 | +2.8% |
| Platinum | $1,830.28 | +4.2% |
| Palladium | $1,426.75 | +5.9% |
What Will Move Gold Prices Next?
First: the U.S. jobs report. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data could quickly alter interest-rate expectations if the figures come in significantly above or below forecasts.
Second: U.S. inflation. Waller tied his position on the September meeting to continued improvement in inflation data, giving the next reading direct significance for the Fed’s decision.
Third: Treasury yields. A continued decline in yields would support gold, while a renewed increase could limit its momentum.
Fourth: the dollar. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold relatively less expensive for holders of other currencies.
Fifth: oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Persistently high energy prices could bring inflation risks back to the forefront and once again alter interest-rate expectations.
Will Gold Reach $4,500?
The $4,500 level is now extremely close after spot gold reached $4,488.54 during Thursday’s session, but proximity to the threshold does not guarantee a breakout or sustained trading above it.
The next move will depend on U.S. economic data, particularly employment and inflation, and on how those figures shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s mid-September meeting.
If the data revive expectations for a rate increase, gold prices could face pressure from the dollar and yields. If inflation indicators continue to improve without a severe deterioration in economic conditions, the monetary backdrop could remain more supportive for the metal than it was before Waller’s comments.
Bottom Line
Gold prices reversed sharply, with the metal jumping more than 2% to $4,488.54 an ounce and putting the $4,500 level within immediate reach.
The direct catalyst for the rally was a reduction in rate-hike bets following Christopher Waller’s comments, alongside declines in the dollar and Treasury yields. In the background, the labor market and inflation remain the two most important factors ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting.
Oil adds another layer of complexity. Brent remaining near $96 and supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation pressures elevated, meaning the factor supporting gold today — lower expectations for higher interest rates — could change if energy prices push inflation expectations higher.
The key question for the market is therefore no longer simply whether gold can break $4,500, but whether the decline in rate-hike expectations can withstand upcoming employment and inflation data as energy prices remain elevated.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,488.54 an ounce in the latest published update during the Thursday, September 3 session, while U.S. gold futures settled at $4,539.90.
Why did gold rise today?
Gold rose after expectations for a September U.S. interest-rate increase declined following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, alongside lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar.
Will gold reach $4,500?
Gold has moved very close to $4,500, but a break above the level is not guaranteed. Employment and inflation data, along with the direction of interest-rate expectations, will be key factors in determining the next move.
What is the probability of a September rate hike?
Market pricing after Waller’s comments showed a roughly 54% probability of an interest-rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting, down from around 62% before his remarks.
How do oil prices affect gold?
Higher oil prices can increase inflation risks, potentially supporting expectations for higher interest rates and yields and putting pressure on gold. At the same time, geopolitical tensions that push oil higher can also increase defensive demand for the precious metal.
Did Turkey’s central bank buy 16 new tons of gold?
Published data show that the Turkish central bank’s gold reserves increased by 16 tons to 791.4 tons after a dollar-gold swap agreement matured. The transaction therefore should not automatically be described as a new 16-ton purchase from the market.
Sources
- Reuters — Gold prices, Christopher Waller’s comments, interest-rate expectations and precious metals
- Reuters — Oil prices, Middle East tensions and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
- Associated Press — U.S. jobless claims and the labor market
- Investing.com — 16 tons of gold returned to Turkey’s central-bank reserves
- World Gold Council — Latest central-bank gold-purchase data
