Oil Prices Today: Brent Tops $106 Despite Recovery in Hormuz Flows

Oil prices today rose more than 2% on Monday, September 28, 2026, with Brent crude reaching $106.92 a barrel even as new data showed a recovery in exports from major Middle East producers and increased oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures rose $2.60, or 2.49%, to $106.92 a barrel at 0803 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $2.08, or 2.25%, to $94.49.

The gains followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s rejection of an Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although he said U.S. negotiators were expected to hold further talks with Iran this week.

Oil prices today: Why did Brent rise more than 2%?

Geopolitical risk returned to the forefront of oil pricing as U.S.-Iran negotiations remained in a stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz continued to play a central role in the ability of Gulf producers to move crude to global markets.

Reuters reported on Monday that prices rose following Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said increased flows through Hormuz were easing some upward pressure but that the broader oil market remained in deficit.

The move follows weeks of sharp volatility in oil prices and the Iran crisis.

Middle East exports rebound to 12.8 million barrels per day

Despite the price increase, preliminary Kpler data showed crude exports from major Middle East producers rising to about 12.8 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February.

The figures cover Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran.

The recovery has not returned exports to pre-war levels. Regional shipments remained about 6 million bpd below February’s 18.8 million bpd.

Hormuz oil flows recover

The improvement in regional exports coincided with a recovery in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Kpler data cited by Reuters on Monday showed exports through the strait were on track to reach about 7.4 million bpd in September.

The recovery matters because Hormuz is the principal maritime export route for several major Gulf producers, making changes in shipping traffic capable of quickly affecting global supply expectations and prices.

Before the war began on February 28, the strait typically handled around 125 large commercial vessels per day, including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers and container ships. Traffic through the waterway accounted for about 20% of the world’s daily crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply, according to Reuters.

Profile News has been following developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as the dispute continues to influence global energy and shipping markets.

Saudi exports rise to 5.4 million barrels per day

Saudi Arabia was one of the main contributors to the recovery in regional exports during September.

Kpler data showed the kingdom was on track to ship about 5.4 million bpd this month, up from 2.446 million bpd in August.

Shipments from the Gulf port of Ras Tanura increased to about 3.6 million bpd, compared with 929,000 bpd in August.

Ras Tanura exports nevertheless remained below February’s level of approximately 6.411 million bpd.

Reuters said Saudi Arabia diverted more exports toward Ras Tanura after attacks damaged its East-West Pipeline and disrupted shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

19 supertankers exited Hormuz in one week

Kpler data showed that 19 very large crude carriers carrying Saudi oil exited through the Strait of Hormuz last week.

Each vessel can carry about 2 million barrels, highlighting the sharp increase in Saudi Gulf shipments.

The figures exclude vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid detection, meaning actual traffic may differ from what vessel-tracking systems record.

Why are oil prices rising if exports are recovering?

The recovery in Hormuz flows reduces some immediate supply concerns but does not eliminate uncertainty surrounding the market.

Regional exports remain well below February levels, while U.S.-Iran talks have yet to produce a settlement that would permanently reduce risks surrounding the strait.

The market is therefore balancing two opposing signals: more physical crude reaching buyers and persistent geopolitical and security risks that could disrupt those flows again.

Diesel adds another layer of pressure

Pressure is not limited to crude oil. The premium for European low-sulfur gasoil over Brent crude futures reached a record of about $95 a barrel last week, Reuters reported.

The move came amid a global diesel supply shortage and discussions in the United States over a possible restriction on fuel exports aimed at lowering domestic prices.

Tight refined-product markets increase the energy sector’s sensitivity to further disruptions because simultaneous increases in crude and diesel prices can feed into transportation, shipping and industrial costs.

What do higher prices mean for consumers and markets?

Sustained Brent prices above $100 can raise fuel, aviation, shipping and road-transport costs and can add to inflationary pressure in energy-importing economies.

Markets are therefore watching three factors at the same time: the actual volume of Middle East exports, the stability of shipping through Hormuz and the direction of contacts between Washington and Tehran.

What are we watching next?

• Any progress in U.S.-Iran talks this week.
• Whether tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover.
• Whether Saudi exports remain near 5.4 million bpd.
• How quickly regional exports move back toward February levels.
• The direction of diesel and refined-product prices.
• Whether Brent remains above $100 a barrel.

Conclusion

Oil began September 28 with gains of more than 2%, pushing Brent to $106.92 a barrel despite a clear recovery in regional exports and Hormuz flows.

The data show that the market is no longer focused only on the amount of crude available, but also on whether the recovery can be sustained while political negotiations remain stalled and risks surrounding the Gulf’s most important maritime export route persist.

With Middle East exports recovering to 12.8 million bpd but remaining below pre-war levels, the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations remain two of the most important drivers of the next move in oil prices.

Sources

• Reuters — Oil gains over 2% as U.S.-Iran peace talks remain in stalemate
• Reuters — Middle East oil exports rebound in September as Saudi Arabia boosts shipments