One year after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria| Steven Sahiounie

One year after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria

December 8, 2025 marks the first year anniversary following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, who was a dictator from 2000 to 2024.  He assumed power in a hereditary power transfer upon the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad who came to power in a 1973 military coup. It was the symbolic and definitive end of a government that had ruled with absolute authority for over five decades, leaving behind extensive destruction, political repression, and a fractured society.

On December 8, 2024 Syria witnessed a historic turning point following a coordinated offensive by opposition factions operating under a coalition of armed rebels headquartered in Idlib. Twelve months later, Syria stands at the crossroads of reconstruction, political realignment, and complex socio-economic transformation. While the country’s challenges remain immense, the impact of regime change has already reshaped the nation’s trajectory.

The End of an Era

As 2025 began, Ahmed Al-Shar’a assumed leadership of the transitional phase with broad executive powers. His tenure started with a new constitutional declaration extending the transitional period to five years, the abolition of the 2012 constitution, the dissolution of the Baath Party, and a wave of political, administrative, and security reshuffling.

Although welcomed by many, the concentration of authority stirred concerns among political groups wary of replicating old authoritarian patterns. The Syrian opposition to the Assad regime was varied, with some based on Islamist ideals, and others seeking a secular and democratic Syria. While the al-Sharaa administration is Islamist leaning, the view in general is to be patient and see what the new government can provide to benefit the people.

Shifting Global Alignments

The new transitional leadership continues to face significant scrutiny at home and abroad, largely due to the past affiliations of certain figures, including President Ahmed al-Sharaa (previously Abu Mohammad al-Jolani). As a result, formal international recognition remains a delicate and contested matter, shaped by a balance of pragmatism and hesitation.

 The US, UK, and EU gradually suspended or lifted major sanctions, including those targeting al-Sharaa. According to circulating reports, Canada has discussed the possibility of reassessing the designation of certain entities; however, the matter remains under official review.”.

Washington and European capitals reopened diplomatic channels, culminating in al-Sharaa’s meeting with President Donald Trump. Saudi-Turkish mediation contributed to the partial suspension of the Caesar Act, a US sanction on doing business in Syria, which has prevented foreign investments and rebuilding of Syria.

Persistent Internal Fragmentation

Despite diplomatic progress, political challenges inside the country remain significant, such as rising tensions In the Alawite-majority coastal region and the southern province of Suwayda, the unresolved relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which continues to maintain control over key oil and grain assets, localized security incidents and armed group rivalries, and the absence of unified military and financial governance structures.

The transitional government faces the delicate task of stabilizing a country long divided by war and competing centers of authority. Before the fall of Assad, the province of Idlib was the sole rebel controlled territory, and the large northeast section of Syria was under the control of a self-proclaimed Kurdish administration supported by the US military presence. Since Assad left, Idlib is back under the Damascus government control, but the large Kurdish area, under the SDF militia, has not yet completed an agreed upon merger with Damascus.

The Economic Landscape: Collapse, Correction, and Cautious Recovery

Years of war left the Syrian economy in ruins. Yet the post-Assad period produced measurable shifts.  Economists attribute the currency stabilization to stricter monetary controls and cessation of deficit financing.

Structural Economic Reforms

Finance Minister Mohammad Yassar Barniyeh announced several major steps, such as a 200% salary increase in the first phase of the wage reform plan, a strategic move away from Central Bank financing of the fiscal deficit, a dramatic improvement in customs and tax revenues due to anti-corruption measures, and a temporary reduction in public investment to avoid domestic borrowing.

The government plans two additional stages, such as a sector-specific wage increases targeting judiciary, education, healthcare, security, defense, and a complete overhaul of the civil service system, replacing the unified employment law with flexible, sector-based pay structures.

Economic Realities: A Nation on Life Support

Despite modest progress 90% of Syrians remain below the poverty line, with 16.7 million people requiring humanitarian assistance.

 The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at $216–400 billion. GDP has contracted by 50–65% since 2010. The expected economic growth for 2025 is only 1%.

The Washington Post warned that the new leadership must urgently address the energy crisis, with large parts of the country in rolling blackouts; however, the availability of electricity has improved in many areas, but has not reached full service. Business ventures and rebuilding will require more electricity available.

Improved Public Services

While the economy remains strained, Syrians report the disappearance of long bread and fuel lines, better availability of basic goods, substantial improvement in bread and gas quality, and early indications of a gradually recovering market. Yet, inflation and low wages keep basic living standards under immense pressure.

A Nation Searching for Cohesion

Sociologists note that the biggest societal challenge is rebuilding social trust after years of sectarian manipulation and collective trauma. Minorities—particularly the Alawite community—continue to navigate a state of psychological shock following the system’s collapse. In March 2025, the Alawite community of the coast suffered attacks by armed groups who were not acting under official orders. Hundreds took refuge at the Russian airbase near Latakia and received humanitarian assistance and security.

The Health Sector: From Systemic Ruin to Emergency Rehabilitation

Acting Health Minister Maher al-Sharaa publicly confirmed that the health sector had been “almost completely destroyed”. This admission opened the door to coordinated international intervention.

Supported by WHO, UNICEF, and international NGOs, dozens of primary health centers began rehabilitation, hospitals received solar-energy systems to compensate for the electricity crisis, plans were laid to raise medical salaries by up to 400% to stem brain drain, and initiatives were launched to attract the return of overseas medical professionals.

The Road Ahead: Syria at a Historic Crossroads

Syria’s first post-Assad year delivered both genuine progress and formidable obstacles. The country has ended widespread state-led killing, reconnected with the global community, stabilized its currency for the first time In years, Initiated foundational reforms in governance and public administration, and begun dismantling the ideological machinery of the previous regime.

A Country Reclaimed—but Not Yet Reborn

For the first time in over a decade, many Syrians feel they have regained a sense of homeland and belonging—something lost amid years of brutality, displacement, and fear.

Syria has not yet healed, it has not yet stabilized, and it has not yet rebuilt.

But it has changed—profoundly, irreversibly, and decisively. The coming years will determine whether the country’s fragile progress can be consolidated into a sustainable state, or whether unresolved political, military, and economic fractures will hinder the long-awaited rebirth of a nation that has suffered beyond measure.