A scenario that worries the Gulf: US withdrawal without dismantling Iran’s capabilities

Western analytical reports warned that any US withdrawal from the war against Iran without dismantling its military capabilities, or without reaching an agreement, would create an “economic catastrophe” affecting Gulf states and the world.

The New York Times quoted Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, as saying that a mere ceasefire without a fundamental addressing of Tehran’s offensive capabilities would put neighboring countries in the face of a “wounded and injured neighbor, but still dangerous.”

Iran, despite suffering heavy losses during the 36-day war, has demonstrated its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt navigation, leading to record highs in global energy prices. According to the report, the most likely and worst-case scenario for Gulf states is “prolonged regional instability.”

Vaez noted that this new reality presents Gulf leaders with an existential challenge: having to coexist with a regime that has shown readiness to use the global economy as leverage, threatening their security and economic stability in the long term.

أكثر من 400 سفينة تصطف في انتظار موافقة إيران لعبور مضيق هرمز — وكالة مهر للأنباء pic.twitter.com/bDSEV6JQTg

— Arab-Military (@ashrafnsier) April 2, 2026

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